I didn't notice any other press coverage of Tuesday's "Mid Year Update" provided by the Montana Chamber of Commerce and UM's Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) focused on the economy.  Tuesday's event was held in Billings, just one of several statewide events.  However, the luncheon was much more than just your typical economic update.  

Had the media have been there, they might have picked up on 2 key nuggets of information.  First, a public employees strike similar to that back in 1990 may be in the making.  Second, economists with UM's BBER have lowered their economic growth forecasts for nearly every major city statewide.  What does point two mean for you?  Well, as one audience member pointed out, these growth numbers are even more skeptical of future economic growth in Montana than that predicted by State Legislative Fiscal Analyst Terry Johnson's numbers.  Johnson himself has been accused by Governor Brian Schweitzer (D-MT) of being too pessimistic about Montana's economy.  Nonetheless, Johnson's numbers show Montana holding at least a $400 million deficit for the upcoming legislative session.    

So that begs the question, asked by St. Vincent Healthcare's Mike Foster (a longtime member of the Board of Regents with significant insight on the Montana Legislature)  at the meeting: If the economic growth numbers provided by UM's BBER are more pessimistic than the outlook already provided by the Legislative Fiscal Division- which shows a potential $400 million deficit- how large could the deficit actually be next Spring?  Foster added that this could be the largest deficit situation to ever face the Montana Legislature. 

You can find the full mid year update report at the BBER's website by clicking here.  Big picture:  Montana will see a weak recovery, but neither economists Paul Polzin or Pat Barkey see a rebound in sight for the state's construction industry.  No rebound in sight for Missoula either, after the closure of Smurfitt Stone.  One positive, noted by Taylor Brown (also our NBS company President), is the potential for great crops this year combined with high wheat prices.  Sitting next to me at the luncheon was Don Gimbel with Carret Asset Management who noted that the high wheat prices can be attributed to the current drought in Russia.   Another positive, noted Barkey and Polzin:  Montana's refinery industry, which continues to invest in plant upgrades despite the economic downturn.  Mining is also on the upswing due to global demand.  

But by far the biggest political story of the day deals with the potential of another mass strike by state employees.  Polzin says he was at the bureau back in the 1990's when the state employees went on strike.  He said due to the "militancy" seen by the public employees, we could see it again.  

If you're wondering what he meant by "militancy," see prior post by clicking here.